2023 Presidential Elections and the Battle Between Two Categories of Northern Elders_ By Ibraheem A. Waziri

09-02-2023

1. Every election season in Nigeria, comes with its provoking premises and issues! This time around, apart from the usual North and South, Muslims and Christians divides that are often, most prominent than party affiliations; a new dynamic which has not yet caught public attention, has been added up to the mix. The struggle to maintain relevance between two different categories of Northern eldership or leadership. These two categories, in the realm, are separated primarily by the order of generational cohort (GC) in age!
2. Falling back to the scholars in anthropology, we learn that a GC is usually pegged at 15-20 years. All persons born within such intervals are regarded to more or less, belong to the same groupings defined by same circumstances; social, economic, cultural events, and would likely share some core elements in perspectives, tastes and life preferences.
3. Since the completion of the taking over of Northern Nigeria by the British in 1903, a generation of who will eventually become Nigerians, from the territory, began to be given birth to, that same year. Therefore the first generational cohorts (GC) of Northern Nigerians can be said to be those born between 1903 and 1919. That is if the mode at which boys usually reach puberty is considered as the norm to be 16 years!
4. The second GC came between 1919 and 35. The third was between 1936 and 51. This GC is the one that did 1966 military counter coup and prosecuted the then Nigerian civil war from the Northern Nigerian side and led by 2nd GC member, General Yakubu Gowon as Head of Nigerian state.
5. One can be right to say that the 3rd GC of Northern Nigerians has been influencing politics and governance policy not only in the North but in Nigeria, since that time till the present! The politicians among them, intellectuals and business owners have been holding the region at its nape!
6. After the 2019 elections, some pundits among us have been harping about the fate of the North come 2023; being it obvious that the 3rd GC are threatened by senesces and therefore are very weak. The assumption is they will reach a consensus among themselves to identify able group of successors that they could handover the affairs of the North and fade themselves into retirement; having put in their best for about 57 years now! The longest any GC has been there and probably would ever be.
7. None of us thought that the successor cohort, the 4th GC, born between 1952 and 67, will need to necessarily put up a fight to dislodge the 3rd GC from the power circle and forcefully take over like what is happening now in the ruling party.
8. However, since the statement made in Abeakuta on the 25th of January, 2023, in a campaign rally, by Asiwàju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressive Congress’ (APC) party presidential candidate; to the effect that there are saboteurs in the Presidency – which ironically is occupied by his party – who are against his emergence as winner of the 2023 presidential Elections slated to hold 25th of February, 2023.
9. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, though a Southerner, enjoys the support of the 14 of the 19 Northern Governors, who are from the ruling party. 10 of them also belong to 4th GC. 2 belongs (Borno and Yobe States) to 5th GC.
10. Kaduna State Governor, an outspoken element among them, has granted series of interviews on the 1st and 2nd February 2023. To a number of media Houses including BBC, TVC, in both Hausa and English, implying that, some 3rd GC Northern influencers around President Muhammadu Buhari ( who is himself a member of the same cohort), as plotting to work against their candidate! By following other means take sure a member of the 3rd GC, Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People Democratic Party (PDP) and a Northerner, emerges as the winner of the 2023 presidential Elections!
11. The ultimate question now, apparently, is whether, the people in the North will agree to prolong the tenure of leadership and eldership of the 3rd GC Northerners, adding another 8 years to their 57 years, making it 65 long years. Or in the alternative, they want to handover the realms of their leadership and eldership to the 4th GC Northerners; to bring their own uniqueness unto the table early enough.
12. What is obvious is the 4th GC Northerners, who were born during the years building up to the civil war to its end, have different perspectives and arguments about how Northerners should see themselves and live with their neighbours in Nigeria. They don’t view Southerners with the kind of suspicion the 3rd GC Northerners think of them. It is why in the first place they would resolve to fulfill the unwritten agreement of power shift to the South in 2023.
13. Some members of the 5th GC of Northerners, either, those born between 1968-83, would appreciate seeing a new perspective taking control of the space and atmosphere of Northern Nigeria come 25th February 2023. It will guarantee an experiment with fresher perspectives that are sure catalyst to positive change and comprehensive progress not the one same old perspective that has dominated the space for 57 years.
14. Also it is only when the 4th GC Northerners move a little higher in the ladder, that the 5th GC Northerners, post  Nigerian civil war generation, will enjoy certain degree of influence at some social plane. The same thing with the 6th GC Northerners, born between 1984 and1998, military rule generation. Also the 7th GC Northerners, born between 1999 and 2015, Fourth Republic, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rule generation. Each movement on the ladder creates opportunities of growth and stability for others to play their role and display their God given talent for the benefits of all.
15. These, can be among reasons why the majority of Northern Nigerians would consider lending their support to the 4th GC Northern leaders, in their bid to take control now. Politicians and bureaucrats like Elrufai, Nuhu Ribadu, intellectuals and opinion leaders like Dr. Aliyu Tilde, Mahmud Jega; Abdulaziz Abdulaziz of the 5th GC and a host of other businessmen and religious leaders, deserve this chance to move us to another level of life changing perspective with Asiwàju Bola Ahmed Tinubu Nigerian leadership come 25th February, 2023!

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